Study Finds 99% of 2020 Epidemiology Experts Now Specializing in Tariffs

Abstract

This paper investigates the longitudinal migration of internet-based lay expertise across major socio-political events between 2019 and 2025. Using a combination of topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and engagement velocity metrics across four major platforms, we observed a recurring phenomenon: users who self-identified as epidemiological authorities during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021) are now posting with similar levels of certainty and volume about global trade policy, specifically U.S. tariffs. The same users previously demonstrated high engagement in constitutional law discourse during the 2019 impeachment of former President Donald J. Trump and again during the January 6 hearings. This pattern suggests a measurable trend of transitory omniscience, wherein individuals recontextualize unverified confidence into newly relevant domains. The authors propose a new psychological framework: Cascading Topical Expertise Syndrome (CTES).

Introduction

In the past six years, the United States has experienced a unique confluence of political upheaval, public health crisis, war coverage, and economic instability—all against a backdrop of unprecedented algorithmic amplification. Within these cycles, certain online personalities have demonstrated a peculiar rhetorical behavior: the fluid, unbroken confidence in every emerging issue.

These individuals often lack formal education or training in any of the discussed fields, yet routinely post 1,200+ word Facebook comments, cite long-expired blog links, and display high attachment to phrases like “do your own research”, “wake up”, and “the real experts won’t tell you this.”

This study analyzes the migratory pattern of their public-facing expertise—what we call the “Chronological Expertise Shift Phenomenon” (CESP)—and quantifies their transitions through multiple cycles of global discourse, from epidemiology to tariffs.

Methodology

Sample Selection

We used a mixed-methods analysis on public social media posts from 2,419 users across four platforms: Facebook (n=1,001), X / Twitter (n=771), Truth Social (n=404), and YouTube comment sections (n=243). Selection was based on users who met the following criteria:

• Posted at least 5 times per month on major political topics

• Self-identified or implied expertise through language (e.g., “as someone who’s read the data”)

• Frequently used phrases: “follow the money”, “not a coincidence”, “you won’t hear this on CNN”

• Profile photo either contained a vehicle, flag, or animal with sunglasses

Data Analysis Tools

• VibeCheck™ NLP Engine: Sentiment analysis + emotional certainty markers

• TIC (Topical Identity Consistency): Measures consistency of argument tone across topic domains

• SEMV (Subject Expertise Migration Velocity): Tracks how quickly a user adopts a new area of expertise after trending events

• All data anonymized via the proprietary Dunning-Kruger Layer Mask™

Results

Other observed “micro-expertise windows” included:

• March 2021: GameStop Short Squeeze Finance

• July 2022: Monkeypox and Monkey Behavior

• Sept 2023: Libya Flood Management Strategies

• February 2025: The Panama Canal

Additional Findings:

• 84% of users cited “economists” when discussing tariffs but could not name one.

• 72% referenced historical precedent (Smoot-Hawley Act, 1930) with no explanation or link.

• 41% claimed to understand macroeconomics at a graduate level, while only 4% correctly defined the word “elasticity.”

One subject (User 872, Facebook) posted 53 consecutive days of long-form economic takes citing “import loopholes” and “Canadian soybean leverage.” He works at a tire shop.

Discussion

This study suggests a persistent psychological mechanism: when a topic becomes politically relevant, a subset of online users rapidly adopt expert-level posture with zero meaningful transition or learning period. In 2020, they cited NIH preprints; in 2025, they cite “supply chain graphs” made in Excel 2007 with Comic Sans labels.

The SEMV across our cohort was astonishingly high—averaging 6.3 days between initial exposure and full public assertion of expertise. Some made the switch within 36 hours, often mid-thread. One subject posted a video titled “Vaccines: A Deep Dive” on a Monday, and by Wednesday was explaining tariff retaliation indexes in the comments of a Menards coupon page.

The behavior reflects a Confidence Reallocation Loop (CRL), wherein social media users recycle prior certainties into new contexts to preserve perceived intellectual authority.

“These people don’t need facts,” notes Dr. Emrick. “They need momentum.”

Conclusion

A clear pattern has emerged: when a new public crisis hits, a specific cohort of highly engaged internet users pivots instantly to claim mastery of that domain—no study, no pause, no irony. Today, they are trade analysts. Tomorrow, they may be volcanologists.

While their passion is undeniable, their accuracy is not. Until social media includes a built-in “Explain This Like You Actually Know It” feature, CTES will likely persist.

As Dr. Emrick concludes:

“They’ve never been wrong. Just early on the next thing they’ll also be wrong about.”

References

1. Emrick, S. et al. (2025). Chronological Expertise Migration Among High-Confidence Digital Users. Baitman’s Journal of Predictive Outrage Economics.

2. YouTube Comment: “Tariffs don’t affect me, I grow my own shoes” – user @FreedomFerret1776

3. Reddit Thread: “Can someone explain what a tariff actually is?” (0 comments, locked)

4. Facebook Post by user with eagle avatar: “I called this in 2020 when I was warning y’all about the PCR tests”

5. An 8-minute podcast called “The Constitution Is Just a Suggestion”