By Dr. Sawyer Emrick, Ph.D. (Digital Sociology & Rhetorical Pattern Mapping)
Department of Public Discourse Analytics, University of Southeastern Cascadia
Published in the Baitman’s Journal of Predictive Outrage Economics, April 2025
Abstract
This longitudinal study investigates the migratory instincts of digital expertise, revealing a statistically absurd concentration of self-declared economists in 2025—most of whom were epidemiologists in 2020, constitutional scholars in 2019, and amateur NATO analysts in 2022.
Using a blend of sentiment analysis, public post tracking, and high-velocity vibe indexing, we observed a Cascading Topical Expertise Syndrome (CTES) in nearly all subjects. Our findings confirm that when a crisis emerges, these individuals immediately rebrand as specialists with no cooling-off period.
Though their factual accuracy is low, their confidence is overwhelming.
And their Facebook banners are usually eagles holding swords.
Introduction
The average American now experiences four major crises per year—political, economic, medical, or cultural—and thanks to algorithmic acceleration, every crisis now births a new crop of instant experts.
We refer to this behavioral pattern as Chronological Expertise Shift Phenomenon (CESP). Unlike traditional learning models, CESP experts:
Study nothing
Master everything
Pivot seamlessly
Shout constantly
This paper analyzes how digital omniscience has evolved from early COVID-19 forums to the current boom in tariff-based commentary, with User #872 (Tire Shop, IN) as a prime example.
Methodology
We analyzed 2,419 accounts across four platforms (Facebook, Twitter/X, Truth Social, YouTube), filtering for the following traits:
Posted political commentary ≥ 5x/month
Cited sources without linking them
Said “I’m not a sheep” at least once
Used profile pictures featuring one of the following: truck, bald eagle, tactical sunglasses, or small dog wearing tactical sunglasses
We applied the following tools:
VibeCheck™ NLP: Measures faux-authority by detecting sentence structure confidence vs. factual basis
SEMV (Subject Expertise Migration Velocity): Time between crisis onset and confident assertion
TIC (Topical Identity Consistency): Scores coherence between topics (0 = whiplash)
All subjects were anonymized using our Dunning-Kruger Layer Mask™ for ethical compliance.
Results
Topical Migration by Year
| Year | Dominant Claimed Expertise | % with High Confidence (≥ 80%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Constitutional Law | 96.7% |
| 2020 | Epidemiology & PCR Theory | 99.3% |
| 2021 | mRNA Biochemistry / Pharma Ethics | 98.1% |
| 2022 | Ukraine / NATO / Pipeline Strategy | 92.4% |
| 2023 | Censorship, AI Bias, DEW Lasers | 95.6% |
| 2025 | Tariff Engineering & Global Trade | 99.0% |
Additional Micro-Expertise Surges:
March 2021 – WallStreetBets / “Short squeeze logistics”
June 2022 – “Monkeypox vs. Normal Monkey” biobehavioral divergence
April 2023 – AI sentience and “freedom of digital thought”
February 2025 – Panama Canal. No follow-up questions.
Behavioral Snapshot:
84% cited “economists say” without naming one
72% referenced Smoot-Hawley Act (never spelled correctly)
41% claimed macroeconomic understanding, but only 4% correctly defined “elasticity”
100% used “wake up” unironically
User #872 posted 53 days in a row about “Canadian soybean leverage.” He works at a tire shop. He has not been stopped.
Outside Consultation: The Disappearing Economist
During a mid-study restroom break, Dr. Emrick reported striking up an unexpectedly insightful conversation with an unseen fellow occupant of the adjacent stall. The unknown speaker offered this unsolicited but startlingly lucid analysis:
“The idea that tariffs are destructive and never lead to a good outcome is a basic principle of economics. If the U.S. wants to be competitive in the world market, they need to open trade even more—and focus on creating products that meet niche overseas demand. Tariffs don’t help none if the U.S. market is full of greed and monopolies. There’s no room left for that good ole’ American ingenuity.”
Upon exiting the stall, Dr. Emrick found no trace of the speaker.
Assuming he’d been lucky enough to cross paths with a visiting professor from the Department of Applied Economics or adjacent Baitman’s faculty, he requested Carl from Campus Security pull restroom surveillance footage to identify the contributor. After some delay, Carl produced footage showing only one other individual exiting the bathroom: Rusty, a longtime local unhoused man who occasionally collects recyclables around campus.
Dr. Emrick, flustered, insisted the footage must be incomplete, or perhaps he’d nodded off on the toilet. The incident was quietly filed away under “Unverified Contact – Possibly Psychic.”
Discussion
These findings suggest a deeply rooted Confidence Reallocation Loop (CRL) in digital discourse, wherein high-certainty users reassign their authority from topic to topic like rotating license plates on a getaway vehicle.
Their engagement style remains consistent:
Write in absolutes
Link to broken sources
Assert superiority in every comment section
Begin videos with “I’m not a doctor, but…”
The SEMV average was just 6.3 days from crisis onset to full public posting as an “expert.” Some transitioned mid-thread. One man posted a COVID breakdown on Tuesday and was citing soybean inversion models by Thursday.
One video was titled “Tariffs and Tyranny: What Pfizer Doesn’t Want You to Know.”
Conflicting Analysis (Proudly Ignored)
Several real-world academic papers and trade journals suggest tariff policy is complex, situational, and best understood by those with at least one Econ class. These include:
Journal of International Trade Policy (2024): “Tariffs generally reduce efficiency and provoke retaliation.”
Brookings Institution (2023): “Trade wars are measurable and lose billions.”
American Economic Review: “If you reference Smoot-Hawley, at least spell it right.”
All of these sources were scanned, then dismissed as “controlled by globalist bean counters.”
Conclusion
A new generation of omni-experts has emerged—seamlessly transitioning from PCR test composition to global steel imports, fueled by certainty, not study.
These users don’t read whitepapers. They channel truth.
They don’t cite evidence. They are the evidence.
As Dr. Emrick notes:
“They’ve never been wrong. Just early on the next thing they’ll also be wrong about.”
References
Emrick, S. et al. (2025). Chronological Expertise Migration Among High-Confidence Digital Users.
Baitman’s Journal of Predictive Outrage EconomicsYouTube Comment: “Tariffs don’t affect me. I grow my own shoes.” — @FreedomFerret1776
Reddit Thread: “What is a tariff anyway?” (0 comments, locked)
Facebook Post, User #872: “Canada’s got us by the soybeans.”
Twitter Post: “They’ll tax your toothbrush but not Hunter’s laptop. Coincidence?”
Podcast: “The Constitution Is Just a Suggestion” (8 minutes, 3 sponsors)
Public flyer, WinCo parking lot: “Tariffs Are Slavery 2.0”
Carl’s YouTube Search History: “Economics for Security Guards (explained with snacks)”